AS Roma vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Parma.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Parma meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Parma have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. AS Roma's 2.60 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Parma's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours AS Roma, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Parma — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 3–2 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 34% versus Parma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AS Roma 41% | Parma 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.07 xG and Parma 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.314 / defence 0.774 | Parma attack 0.727 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AS Roma games / 44 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 69% | Draw 19% | Parma 11%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Parma 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | Parma 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 69% | Draw 19% | Parma 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG AS Roma 2.07 / Parma 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.314 / def 0.774 | Parma attack 0.727 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Parma xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Parma kick off?
AS Roma vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Parma part of?
AS Roma vs Parma is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 69% chance of winning, Parma a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AS Roma and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): AS Roma 4W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Parma in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.31x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.73x) against AS Roma's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.22
11%
8.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.77
0.70
Parma xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
8.78
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
35%
2.89
1%
69.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.70 for Parma, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 27W 6D 11L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 12W 13D 19L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Parma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (15W 4D 3L).
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 6D 10L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Parma in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 27W 6D 11L in their last 44 games (1.98 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Parma away?
AS Roma's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.23 PPG; Parma away: 1.09 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Parma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 5-0 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
AS Roma
0
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Parma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Parma 2-3 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Parma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 32% (AS Roma) and 32% (Parma) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 32% (Parma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Parma in 36%; Parma in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AS Roma's recent matches and 32% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 32% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.