Venezia vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Genoa meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Genoa have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Venezia. A 0.50 PPG lead over Genoa (1.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Genoa in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Genoa — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Genoa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.03 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.720 / defence 1.303 | Genoa attack 0.724 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Venezia's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Venezia games / 45 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 32% | Draw 29% | Genoa 39%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Genoa lead the H2H ledger, but Venezia carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Venezia (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 30% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 32% | Draw 29% | Genoa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Venezia 1.03 / Genoa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.720 / def 1.303 | Genoa attack 0.724 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Genoa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Genoa kick off?
Venezia vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Genoa part of?
Venezia vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 32% chance of winning, Genoa a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Venezia and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
Record (6 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 2 | Genoa 3W.
What form are Venezia and Genoa in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.72x) against Venezia's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.44
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.20
1.17
Genoa xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Venezia and 1.17 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 25W 10D 10L from 45 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 22L across 45 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 17W 0D 5L from 22 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Genoa in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 10L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while Genoa have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Genoa away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; Genoa away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Venezia or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Genoa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
3
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Genoa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 36%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Genoa in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Venezia's recent matches and 54% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Genoa tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Genoa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.