Bologna vs AC Milan – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AC Milan (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face AC Milan.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Bologna welcome AC Milan to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Bologna have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AC Milan stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AC Milan's 2.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bologna's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
AC Milan have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Bologna's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2026, ended 4–2 with Bologna winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AC Milan have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
AC Milan in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus AC Milan 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | AC Milan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.01 xG and AC Milan 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.851 / defence 1.036 | AC Milan attack 0.973 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. AC Milan's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Bologna games / 48 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 26% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 48%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | AC Milan 2.08. AC Milan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Milan are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | AC Milan 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 26% | Draw 26% | AC Milan 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Bologna 1.01 / AC Milan 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.851 / def 1.036 | AC Milan attack 0.973 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.48
AC Milan xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AC Milan kick off?
Bologna vs AC Milan is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 February 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs AC Milan part of?
Bologna vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 26% chance of winning, AC Milan a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bologna and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
Record (10 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 3 | AC Milan 5W.
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. AC Milan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.85x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AC Milan's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
26%
3.86
26%
3.82
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.49
1.48
AC Milan xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
6%
16.87
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bologna and 1.48 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 20W 10D 18L from 48 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 9L across 48 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 13W 8D 3L across 24 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.54 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 26W 13D 9L in their last 48 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.12 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Bologna or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AC Milan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AC Milan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting AC Milan specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AC Milan?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, AC Milan have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when AC Milan 2-4 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
AC Milan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 42%, AC Milan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 38% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: AC Milan in 38%; Bologna have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AC Milan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 38% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.