Parma vs Frosinone – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 February 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Frosinone have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Frosinone's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Parma's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Parma, 1 for Frosinone and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 4–3 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 40% versus Frosinone 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 34% | Frosinone 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.24 xG and Frosinone 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.626 / defence 0.962 | Frosinone attack 1.106 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Parma's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Parma games / 10 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 30% | Draw 25% | Frosinone 45%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Frosinone 2.22. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Parma 40% | Frosinone 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 30% | Draw 25% | Frosinone 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Parma 1.24 / Frosinone 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.626 / def 0.962 | Frosinone attack 1.106 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Frosinone xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Frosinone kick off?
Parma vs Frosinone is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Frosinone part of?
Parma vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 30% chance of winning, Frosinone a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Parma and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Frosinone?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 2W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Parma and Frosinone in?
Parma (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Frosinone (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.63x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
30%
3.29
25%
4.01
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Parma xG
Total xG
2.80
1.56
Frosinone xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
15.57
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Parma and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Parma and 1.56 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 14D 21L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 2.09 PPG from 47 outings (28W 14D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 6W 7D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.96 points per game from 23 outings (12W 9D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 2.09 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 12W 14D 21L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 28W 14D 5L in their last 47 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.09 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Parma or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Frosinone in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Parma's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Frosinone 3-4 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Frosinone?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 44%, Frosinone 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Parma) and 56% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 30%; Parma have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Parma's recent matches and 61% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Parma's recent games and 56% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Frosinone tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.