AS Roma 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Juventus travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 35). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AS Roma have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Roma's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Juventus — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Juventus away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of AS Roma's games and 60% of Juventus's (from AS Roma's last 10 home games and Juventus's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, AS Roma have won 1, Juventus 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2023, ended AS Roma 0–1 Juventus — a Juventus win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Juventus in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 54% versus Juventus 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 51% | Juventus 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.47 xG and Juventus 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.202 / defence 1.038 | Juventus attack 1.009 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.157. Data: built from AS Roma's last 72 games and Juventus's last 72.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 42% | Draw 27% | Juventus 31%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.36 | Draw 3.70 | Juventus 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Juventus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 60% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 42% | Draw 27% | Juventus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG AS Roma 1.47 / Juventus 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.202 / def 1.038 | Juventus attack 1.009 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Juventus xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Juventus kick off?
AS Roma vs Juventus kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is AS Roma vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Juventus part of?
AS Roma vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 42% chance of winning, Juventus a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AS Roma and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.20x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 72 games and Juventus's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.70
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.68
1.21
Juventus xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.21 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 35W 17D 20L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Juventus's form line: 40W 17D 15L from 72 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.69 PPG, Juventus on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 36 home games (22W 6D 8L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 17W 8D 11L from their last 36 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.43 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Juventus in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 17D 20L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while Juventus have gone 40W 17D 15L in their last 72 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Juventus away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Juventus away: 1.64 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Juventus in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
5
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Juventus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 1, Juventus have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Juventus see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 44%, Juventus 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AS Roma) and 36% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Juventus in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AS Roma's recent matches and 36% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AS Roma's recent games and 36% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of AS Roma's recent matches and 58% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma and Juventus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.47 xG and Juventus 1.21 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Juventus attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 42% | Draw 27% | Juventus 31%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 51%, Juventus 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.69 PPG, Juventus 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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