Hellas Verona 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hellas Verona's home record at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Fiorentina hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Fiorentina winning.
It is worth noting that Fiorentina have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 42% | Fiorentina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.866 / defence 1.101 | Fiorentina attack 0.881 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.148. Data: 72 Hellas Verona games / 71 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 33% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 37%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Fiorentina 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Fiorentina 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 33% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Hellas Verona 1.03 / Fiorentina 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.866 / def 1.101 | Fiorentina attack 0.881 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Fiorentina xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina part of?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 33% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hellas Verona and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.87) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.88x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 72/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
33%
3.06
31%
3.27
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.15
1.11
Fiorentina xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.11 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 71 games, going 15W 19D 37L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.49 PPG from 71 outings (29W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 11W 8D 15L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.21 points per game from 34 outings (11W 8D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.45 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 19D 37L in their last 71 games (0.90 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 29W 19D 23L in their last 71 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Fiorentina away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.21 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 59%, Fiorentina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 32% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 44% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 32% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.11 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Fiorentina attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 33% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 37%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.