Udinese 1-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Napoli make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 1W 4D 5L at Bluenergy Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Napoli have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Napoli are 0.70 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Napoli, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Napoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Napoli have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Napoli — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 56% versus Napoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | Napoli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.06 xG and Napoli 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.860 / defence 1.200 | Napoli attack 1.219 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.155. Napoli have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Udinese games / 72 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 26% | Napoli 51%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Napoli 1.96. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 70% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 23% | Draw 26% | Napoli 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Udinese 1.06 / Napoli 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.860 / def 1.200 | Napoli attack 1.219 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Napoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Napoli xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Napoli kick off?
Udinese vs Napoli kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Napoli?
Udinese 1 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Udinese vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Napoli part of?
Udinese vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 23% chance of winning, Napoli a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Udinese and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Napoli?
Record (5 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Napoli 4W.
What form are Udinese and Napoli in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Napoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.22x) against Udinese's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
23%
4.33
26%
3.89
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.75
1.69
Napoli xG
4.33
23%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
23.47
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Udinese and 1.69 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 72 games, going 15W 30D 27L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.94 PPG from 72 outings (41W 17D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 7W 18D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.97 points per game from 36 outings (21W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.79 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Napoli in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 30D 27L in their last 72 games (1.04 PPG), while Napoli have gone 41W 17D 14L in their last 72 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.08 PPG; Napoli away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Udinese or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Napoli in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 20 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Napoli have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Napoli 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 64%, Napoli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Udinese) and 47% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 36%; Napoli in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Udinese's recent matches and 44% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Udinese's recent games and 47% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Napoli tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Napoli in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Udinese and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.06 xG and Napoli 1.69 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Napoli attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 23% | Draw 26% | Napoli 51%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, Napoli 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.