Torino 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Torino take on Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Torino — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bologna's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Torino's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Torino, 2 for Bologna and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 40% versus Bologna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 31% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.76 xG and Bologna 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.679 / defence 0.605 | Bologna attack 1.098 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.172. Torino's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Torino's defence rating of 0.605 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Torino games / 72 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 31% | Draw 38% | Bologna 32%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Bologna 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Torino's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 10% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 31% | Draw 38% | Bologna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Torino 0.76 / Bologna 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.679 / def 0.605 | Bologna attack 1.098 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bologna xG
30%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Bologna kick off?
Torino vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Bologna?
Torino 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Torino vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Bologna part of?
Torino vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 31% chance of winning, Bologna a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Torino and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
Record (5 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Torino and Bologna in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Torino's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
38%
2.64
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Torino xG
Total xG
1.54
0.78
Bologna xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.38
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.5 | 16.7 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Torino and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Torino and 0.78 for Bologna, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 24D 23L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.62 PPG from 72 outings (31W 24D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.38 PPG, Bologna on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Torino's home form reads 12W 14D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.34 points per game from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.42 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Bologna in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 25W 24D 23L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Bologna have gone 31W 24D 17L in their last 72 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Bologna away?
Torino's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.43 PPG; Bologna away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Torino or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Torino's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 31%, Bologna 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Torino) and 66% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Torino's recent matches and 71% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Torino's recent games and 66% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Bologna tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Bologna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Torino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 35, as Torino and Bologna drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.76 xG and Bologna 0.78 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.68 / defence 0.60 against Bologna attack 1.10 / defence 0.82, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 31% | Draw 38% | Bologna 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 31%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.38 PPG, Bologna 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.