Empoli 0-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Empoli welcome Frosinone to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Frosinone — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Frosinone's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Empoli) versus 0.80 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Empoli have won 0, Frosinone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Frosinone trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 40% versus Frosinone 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 35% | Frosinone 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.58 xG and Frosinone 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.848 / defence 1.002 | Frosinone attack 0.831 / defence 1.380. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.148. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.380 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Empoli games / 34 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 52% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 22%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Frosinone 4.55. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 30% | Frosinone 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 52% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Empoli 1.58 / Frosinone 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.848 / def 1.002 | Frosinone attack 0.831 / def 1.380 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Empoli (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Frosinone xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Frosinone kick off?
Empoli vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Frosinone?
Empoli 0 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Empoli vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Frosinone part of?
Empoli vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 52% chance of winning, Frosinone a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Empoli and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Empoli and Frosinone in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.85) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.83
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.54
0.96
Frosinone xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Empoli and 0.96 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli's recent record stands at 18W 20D 34L from 72 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 31W 18D 23L across 72 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 12W 8D 16L from 36 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Frosinone's away record stands at 10W 11D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.47 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 18W 20D 34L in their last 72 games (1.03 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 31W 18D 23L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Frosinone away?
Empoli's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.22 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Empoli or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Frosinone in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Frosinone runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Empoli's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Empoli
3
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Frosinone have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Frosinone 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 33%, Frosinone 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Empoli) and 47% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 44% of games; Frosinone in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Empoli's recent matches and 58% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Empoli's recent games and 47% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Frosinone tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Frosinone finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.58 xG and Frosinone 0.96 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Frosinone landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Frosinone attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 52% | Draw 26% | Frosinone 22%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 35%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.