Juventus 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Juventus face Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventus and Salernitana meet at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juventus are significantly better at Allianz Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Salernitana (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Salernitana's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Juventus. A 1.00 PPG lead over Salernitana (1.20 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Juventus have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Salernitana managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with Juventus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Juventus and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 37% versus Salernitana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 37% | Salernitana 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.88 xG and Salernitana 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.878 / defence 0.709 | Salernitana attack 0.726 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.177. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juventus's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Juventus games / 73 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 67% | Draw 22% | Salernitana 10%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Salernitana 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 30% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 67% | Draw 22% | Salernitana 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 39% | xG Juventus 1.88 / Salernitana 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.878 / def 0.709 | Salernitana attack 0.726 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Juventus (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Salernitana xG
39%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Salernitana kick off?
Juventus vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Salernitana?
Juventus 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Juventus vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Salernitana part of?
Juventus vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 67% chance of winning, Salernitana a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juventus and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Salernitana?
Record (5 meetings): Juventus 4W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Juventus and Salernitana in?
Juventus (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Salernitana (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juventus's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.73x) against Juventus's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
67%
1.49
22%
4.46
10%
9.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.48
0.61
Salernitana xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
9.56
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
2%
62.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juventus and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Juventus and 0.61 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventus's recent record stands at 40W 18D 15L from 73 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Salernitana, meanwhile, have gone 11W 24D 38L across 73 games — 0.78 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 1.11 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventus have managed 23W 9D 4L from 36 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salernitana's away record stands at 3W 13D 20L across 36 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventus are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.03 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 40W 18D 15L in their last 73 games (1.89 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 24D 38L in their last 73 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Salernitana away?
Juventus's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.17 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Juventus or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Salernitana in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 0-3 on 7 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Juventus
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Juventus 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Salernitana?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 36%, Salernitana 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Juventus) and 56% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Salernitana in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Juventus's recent matches and 53% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Juventus's recent games and 56% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Salernitana tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Juventus and Salernitana drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.88 xG and Salernitana 0.61 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Juventus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.88 / defence 0.71 against Salernitana attack 0.73 / defence 1.56, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 67% | Draw 22% | Salernitana 10%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 37%, Salernitana 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.