AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Atalanta — this AS Roma vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atalanta's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atalanta's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Atalanta, who have 6 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2026, ended AS Roma 0–1 Atalanta — a Atalanta win.
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 41% versus Atalanta 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 39% | Atalanta 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.22 xG and Atalanta 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.258 / defence 0.730 | Atalanta attack 1.086 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.170. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.258 — their 1.22 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Atalanta bring a tight defence (rating 0.769, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling AS Roma's projected output down. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.730), which is pulling Atalanta's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 70 games and Atalanta's last 70.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 28%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.33 | Draw 3.43 | Atalanta 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 30% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG AS Roma 1.22 / Atalanta 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.258 / def 0.730 | Atalanta attack 1.086 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Atalanta xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 43% chance of winning, Atalanta a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.26) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.09x) against AS Roma's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 70 games and Atalanta's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.43
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.15
0.93
Atalanta xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.93 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 38W 12D 20L from 70 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 36W 19D 15L across 70 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for AS Roma against 1.81 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 24W 4D 6L from their last 34 home games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atalanta's away record stands at 18W 9D 7L across their last 34 away games, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.74 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Atalanta in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 38W 12D 20L in their last 70 games (1.80 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 36W 19D 15L in their last 70 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
AS Roma's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.24 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.85 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Atalanta in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AS Roma and Atalanta, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 35%, Atalanta 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 47% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Atalanta in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Atalanta matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of AS Roma's recent matches and 41% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 47% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of AS Roma's recent matches and 71% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 33, as AS Roma and Atalanta drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.22 xG and Atalanta 0.93 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.26 / defence 0.73 against Atalanta attack 1.09 / defence 0.77, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 43% | Draw 29% | Atalanta 28%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 39%, Atalanta 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Atalanta's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.80 PPG, Atalanta 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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