🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Torino (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cremonese face Torino.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Cremonese welcome Torino to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Torino — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Torino have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Torino are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cremonese, 2 for Torino and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Torino winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Cremonese in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Torino in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Torino 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Torino 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.13 xG and Torino 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.680 / defence 1.320 | Torino attack 0.931 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Torino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Cremonese games / 70 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 26% | Torino 44%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Torino 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Cremonese 40% | Torino 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights