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Poisson rates Udinese at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Parma encounter.

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Match Analysis

Udinese host Parma at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Udinese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Udinese's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Parma away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.40 PPG versus Parma's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Udinese hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Parma, with 0 draws in between.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Udinese winning.

The historical record gives Udinese a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Udinese in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).

Parma in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 51% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Parma 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.06 xG and Parma 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.846 / defence 0.871 | Parma attack 0.793 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.160. Data: 70 Udinese games / 70 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Udinese 41% | Draw 32% | Parma 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Parma 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.

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