Waterford 1-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Longford Town at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waterford face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Waterford Regional Sports Centre plays host to Waterford versus Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2021 at 19:00 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.86 xG and Longford Town 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.855 / defence 1.218 | Longford Town attack 0.901 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 0.719 / away 1.160. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.407 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Waterford's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Data: built from Waterford's last 6 games and Longford Town's last 6.
Result probabilities: Waterford 24% | Draw 31% | Longford Town 45%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 4.11 | Draw 3.25 | Longford Town 2.23. Longford Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Longford Town as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Longford Town if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2021 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 24% | Draw 31% | Longford Town 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Waterford 0.86 / Longford Town 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.855 / def 1.218 | Longford Town attack 0.901 / def 1.407 | league avg home 0.719 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Longford Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Longford Town xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Longford Town kick off?
Waterford vs Longford Town kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Longford Town?
Waterford 1 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Waterford vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Longford Town part of?
Waterford vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 24% chance of winning, Longford Town a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Longford Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Waterford and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Waterford vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Longford Town's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Longford Town's attack (0.90x) against Waterford's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 6 games and Longford Town's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Longford Town Win
24%
4.11
31%
3.25
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.14
1.27
Longford Town xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.69
19%
5.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 15.0 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Waterford and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Waterford and 1.27 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Waterford (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 13 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won Waterford 4-1 Longford Town on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Longford Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Waterford
1
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Longford Town have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Waterford and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 November 2021: Longford Town 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Longford Town?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Longford Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Longford Town 1-0 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.86 xG and Longford Town 1.27 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Longford Town landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.22 against Longford Town attack 0.90 / defence 1.41, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 24% | Draw 31% | Longford Town 45%, with Longford Town to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.