Longford Town 0-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Longford Town face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Longford Town and Finn Harps meet at Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 20:45 UK time.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.78 xG and Finn Harps 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.838 / defence 1.362 | Finn Harps attack 0.815 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.778 / away 1.139. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 5 games and Finn Harps's last 5. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 22% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 47%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 4.47 | Draw 3.27 | Finn Harps 2.13. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Longford Town 5 games, Finn Harps 5) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 6 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 22% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Longford Town 0.78 / Finn Harps 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.838 / def 1.362 | Finn Harps attack 0.815 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.778 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Finn Harps xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Finn Harps FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Finn Harps kick off?
Longford Town vs Finn Harps kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Longford Town 0 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is Longford Town vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Finn Harps part of?
Longford Town vs Finn Harps is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 6) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 22% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Longford Town and Finn Harps will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Longford Town vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Longford Town's attack at 0.84x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Finn Harps's attack (0.81x) against Longford Town's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 5 games and Finn Harps's last 5, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
22%
4.47
31%
3.27
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.05
1.26
Finn Harps xG
4.47
22%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.3 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Finn Harps Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.26 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Longford Town (Home) vs Finn Harps (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 19 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Finn Harps have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Finn Harps won Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town on 19 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Longford Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
2
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Finn Harps H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Finn Harps?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 0, Finn Harps have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Finn Harps last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 November 2021: Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Finn Harps?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Longford Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Longford Town and Finn Harps drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.78 xG and Finn Harps 1.26 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Finn Harps landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.36 against Finn Harps attack 0.81 / defence 1.20, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 22% | Draw 31% | Finn Harps 47%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.