St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.26 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.229 / defence 0.991 | Waterford attack 0.842 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 0.778 / away 1.139. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 St Patrick's Athl. games / 5 Waterford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 30% | Waterford 27%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Waterford 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (5 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 30% | Waterford 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.26 / Waterford 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.229 / def 0.991 | Waterford attack 0.842 / def 1.319 | league avg home 0.778 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Waterford xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance of winning, Waterford a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.23) and Waterford's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.84x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
The sample (5/5 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.33
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.21
0.95
Waterford xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.95 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Waterford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.26 xG and Waterford 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waterford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.23 / defence 0.99 against Waterford attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/5 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 30% | Waterford 27%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.