Waterford 0-3 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 8 as Waterford welcome Dundalk to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.82 xG and Dundalk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.842 / defence 1.108 | Dundalk attack 0.828 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 0.756 / away 1.073. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Waterford games / 7 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 29% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 38%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Dundalk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Waterford's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 29% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Waterford 0.82 / Dundalk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.842 / def 1.108 | Dundalk attack 0.828 / def 1.297 | league avg home 0.756 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dundalk xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Dundalk kick off?
Waterford vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 April 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Waterford 0 - 3 Dundalk.
Where is Waterford vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Dundalk part of?
Waterford vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 29% chance of winning, Dundalk a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Waterford and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
29%
3.42
33%
3.05
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Waterford xG
Total xG
1.81
0.98
Dundalk xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 16.1 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Waterford and 0.98 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Dundalk?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Waterford 0-3 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.82 xG and Dundalk 0.98 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Waterford fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dundalk outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Dundalk attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 29% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 38%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.