Finn Harps 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Finn Harps take on St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Finn Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 April 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.90 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 1.154 / defence 1.049 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.787 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 0.724 / away 1.118. Data: 6 Finn Harps games / 6 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 32% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 32% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Finn Harps 0.90 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 1.154 / def 1.049 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.787 / def 1.078 | league avg home 0.724 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.92
St Patrick's Athl. xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 23 April 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Finn Harps 0 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 32% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (1.15) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.79x) against Finn Harps's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
35%
2.83
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.82
0.92
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.9 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.92 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 on 21 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Finn Harps have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2022, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Finn Harps 0-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.90 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.92 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Finn Harps fell 0.9 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 1.15 / defence 1.05 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 32% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.