St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Longford Town make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 30 April 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 xG and Longford Town 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.201 / defence 0.897 | Longford Town attack 0.784 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 0.717 / away 1.105. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 St Patrick's Athl. games / 7 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Longford Town 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Longford Town 4.17. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Longford Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 / Longford Town 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.201 / def 0.897 | Longford Town attack 0.784 / def 1.415 | league avg home 0.717 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Longford Town xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 30 April 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 47% chance of winning, Longford Town a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Longford Town will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Longford Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Longford Town in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.20x the league average against Longford Town's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Longford Town's attack (0.78x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
47%
2.15
30%
3.35
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.00
0.78
Longford Town xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.78 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: St Patrick's Athl. have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 30 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Longford Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
St Patrick's Athl.
0
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Longford Town?
From 4 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 4, Longford Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Longford Town last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2021, when Longford Town 1-4 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Longford Town?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Longford Town 3-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.22 xG and Longford Town 0.78 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.20 / defence 0.90 against Longford Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Longford Town 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.