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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 5 for Shamrock Rovers and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Season Statistics

St Patrick's Athl.'s full-season record stands at 12W 6D 6L from 24 games. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 0.8 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 24 games (33%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game.

Shamrock Rovers's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 15W 5D 5L from 25 matches. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 3 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 25 games (16%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-2-1. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.

Shamrock Rovers are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. St Patrick's Athl. score 2+ goals far more often (33% vs 16%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: St Patrick's Athl. 3/3 vs Shamrock Rovers 4/4 this season.

Standings Snapshot

Shamrock Rovers hold the table advantage, sitting 1st with 50 points — 2 positions and 8 points clear of St Patrick's Athl. in 3rd.

At home this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 9W 1D 2L. Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 3D 4L on their travels. St Patrick's Athl.: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification). Shamrock Rovers: Promotion - Champions League (Qualification).

In-Play Profile

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 35% versus Shamrock Rovers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.46 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.240 / defence 0.604 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 61 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 51% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 19%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 5.26. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Shamrock Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.

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