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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 72% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Current Form

St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Waterford have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Historically, St Patrick's Athl. have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 10 meetings, with Waterford managing just 1 victories and 4 draws shared.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives St Patrick's Athl. a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Stats

Waterford's full-season record stands at 4W 9D 11L from 24 games. Their scoring output is 1.4 per match with 2.0 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 24 games (25%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.

League Table

St Patrick's Athl. hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 42 points — 6 positions and 21 points clear of Waterford in 9th.

On home turf, St Patrick's Athl.'s Premier Division record reads 9W 1D 2L this term. Waterford have gone 2W 2D 8L on their travels. St Patrick's Athl.: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification). Waterford: Premier Division (Relegation).

Trading & In-Play

St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Waterford — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 35% versus Waterford 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Waterford 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.65 xG and Waterford 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.240 / defence 0.604 | Waterford attack 1.246 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Waterford have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 0.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.604 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 60 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 72% | Draw 17% | Waterford 11%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Waterford 9.09. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.63 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Waterford 70% BTTS from recent games.

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