Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shelbourne have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Shamrock Rovers. A 0.70 PPG lead over Shelbourne (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Shelbourne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 3 for Shelbourne and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2026, ended 1–2 with Shelbourne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shamrock Rovers 56% and Shelbourne 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Shelbourne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.58 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.216 / defence 0.924 | Shelbourne attack 1.026 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.224. Data: 63 Shamrock Rovers games / 62 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 44% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 24%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Shelbourne 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 70% | Shelbourne 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 44% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.58 / Shelbourne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.216 / def 0.924 | Shelbourne attack 1.026 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shelbourne xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 44% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne?
Record (10 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 3W | Draws 4 | Shelbourne 3W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.03x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
44%
2.30
32%
3.13
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.74
1.16
Shelbourne xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.16 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 35W 15D 12L from 62 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 23W 24D 15L across 62 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 21W 5D 4L from 30 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 12W 13D 5L across 30 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.35 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne in 66%.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 35W 15D 12L in their last 62 games (1.94 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 23W 24D 15L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Shelbourne away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.27 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, Shelbourne have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 50%, Shelbourne 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 47% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Shelbourne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 63% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 47% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shamrock Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Shamrock Rovers and Shelbourne drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.58 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Shelbourne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Shelbourne attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 44% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 24%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Shelbourne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shelbourne's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.