📋

Poisson rates Waterford at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Dundalk encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 31 as Waterford welcome Dundalk to Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Waterford's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Regional Sports Centre this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Dundalk — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.50 PPG versus Dundalk's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waterford register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dundalk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Waterford: 6 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Dundalk, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2026, ended 3–2 with Waterford winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Waterford and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Team Stats

Waterford have played 24 games this season, recording 4W 9D 11L. They average 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 2-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 5-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 5 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 0 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 24 games (25%). Penalties this season: 6 scored / 1 missed from 7 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game.

Table Standings

In the Premier Division table, Dundalk sit 4th on 35 points, 5 places and 14 points ahead of Waterford in 9th.

On home turf, Waterford's Premier Division record reads 2W 7D 3L this term. Away from home, Dundalk have posted 3W 6D 3L in Premier Division this season. Waterford: Premier Division (Relegation).

Trading Patterns

Waterford in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Dundalk in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waterford 62% and Dundalk 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 50% | Dundalk 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.65 xG and Dundalk 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.992 / defence 1.053 | Dundalk attack 0.942 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 60 Waterford games / 24 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Waterford 44% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 29%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Waterford as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 60% | Dundalk 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights