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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Derry City encounter.

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Full Analysis

Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shelbourne have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tolka Park this season.

Derry City (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Derry City have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 0.70 PPG lead over Derry City (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Derry City in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Shelbourne 3W, Derry City 4W, 3D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 10 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Stats

Across 24 matches this season, Shelbourne have gone 8W 10D 6L. Their scoring output is 1.5 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 2-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-2 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 5 clean sheets this season (2 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 1 of 24 games (4%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards per game.

Derry City have played 25 games this season, recording 6W 11D 8L. Attacking returns: 1.3 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-1 (H) / 1-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 2-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 25 games (8%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 1 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Derry City lead on clean sheets this season (6 vs 5). Penalty activity: Shelbourne 3/3 vs Derry City 3/4 this season.

League Table

Shelbourne hold the table advantage, sitting 5th with 34 points — 1 position and 5 points clear of Derry City in 6th.

On home turf, Shelbourne's Premier Division record reads 3W 5D 5L this term. Derry City have gone 1W 6D 5L on their travels.

Trading Data

Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shelbourne 67% and Derry City 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 53% | Derry City 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.28 xG and Derry City 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.926 / defence 1.137 | Derry City attack 0.827 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 60 Shelbourne games / 61 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 36% | Draw 30% | Derry City 34%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 70% | Derry City 80% BTTS from recent games.

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