📋

Poisson model rates Dundalk at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dundalk 1.40 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Dundalk have won 3, St Patrick's Athl. 5, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Dundalk winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Team Stats

Across 24 matches this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 12W 6D 6L. Attacking returns: 1.6 goals per game; defensive: 0.8 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 9 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 8 of 24 games (33%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game.

Standings Snapshot

St Patrick's Athl. hold the table advantage, sitting 3rd with 42 points — 1 position and 7 points clear of Dundalk in 4th.

Dundalk's home record this season stands at 6W 2D 4L. On the road, St Patrick's Athl.'s record stands at 3W 5D 4L this term. St Patrick's Athl.: Promotion - Conference League (Qualification).

Trading Patterns

Dundalk in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 71% versus St Patrick's Athl. 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 62% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.25 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.960 / defence 1.139 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.779 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. Data: 24 Dundalk games / 60 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dundalk 37% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights