Bohemians 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 30 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.94 xG and Derry City 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.976 / defence 1.452 | Derry City attack 0.680 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 0.756 / away 1.073. Derry City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Bohemians games / 7 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 31% | Draw 31% | Derry City 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 31% | Draw 31% | Derry City 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Bohemians 0.94 / Derry City 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.976 / def 1.452 | Derry City attack 0.680 / def 1.270 | league avg home 0.756 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Derry City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Derry City xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 April 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 31% chance of winning, Derry City a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.68x) against Bohemians's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
31%
3.19
31%
3.23
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.00
1.06
Derry City xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.4 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.06 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Bohemians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Bohemians 1-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.94 xG and Derry City 1.06 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 1.45 against Derry City attack 0.68 / defence 1.27, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 31% | Draw 31% | Derry City 38%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.