Sligo Rovers 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to The Showgrounds to take on Sligo Rovers. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 May 2021, 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.65 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.902 / defence 0.990 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.868 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 0.748 / away 1.164. Data: 8 Sligo Rovers games / 8 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 22% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 4.55 | Draw 2.78 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Sligo Rovers's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 22% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.65 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.902 / def 0.990 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.868 / def 0.961 | league avg home 0.748 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 3 May 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 22% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 42% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.90x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
22%
4.49
36%
2.80
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.65
1.00
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.49
22%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.22
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.00 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
7
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 9, as Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.65 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.00 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 22% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.