St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as St Patrick's Athl. face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Finn Harps make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Finn Harps have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for St Patrick's Athl. against 1.10 for Finn Harps. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Finn Harps and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2022, ended St Patrick's Athl. 2–0 Finn Harps — a St Patrick's Athl. win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Finn Harps half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 56% versus Finn Harps 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Finn Harps 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.950 / defence 0.815 | Finn Harps attack 1.009 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.203. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output up. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 47 games and Finn Harps's last 47.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 26%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.31 | Draw 3.30 | Finn Harps 3.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though recent form (St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 12 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 / Finn Harps 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.950 / def 0.815 | Finn Harps attack 1.009 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Finn Harps xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 22 April 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 0 Finn Harps.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 12) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 0.95x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Finn Harps's attack (1.01x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 47 games and Finn Harps's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.30
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.32
0.99
Finn Harps xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.99 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Finn Harps, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 14L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Finn Harps heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 12W 2D 4L from their last 18 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Finn Harps's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across their last 18 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps in 61%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Finn Harps (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Finn Harps away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.11 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.28 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps, the earliest from April 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 2 September 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Finn Harps on 21 Jun 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Finn Harps have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2022: St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Finn Harps 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for St Patrick's Athl. and 67% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Finn Harps in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Finn Harps Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 61% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 67% of Finn Harps's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Finn Harps matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 72% of Finn Harps's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Finn Harps 2-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.33 xG and Finn Harps 0.99 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Finn Harps landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against Finn Harps attack 1.01 / defence 1.27, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 26%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Finn Harps 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.