UCD 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 51%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to UCD Bowl to take on UCD. The game is scheduled for Monday 18 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
UCD are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.80 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. UCD register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, UCD have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.52 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.537 / defence 1.035 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.930 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.223. UCD's attack strength of 0.537 is below the league average — the 0.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 UCD games / 46 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 15% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%. Fair-value odds: UCD 6.67 | Draw 2.94 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.96. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — UCD's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.70 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 15% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 30% | xG UCD 0.52 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.537 / def 1.035 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.930 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.52
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.18
St Patrick's Athl. xG
30%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
UCD 1 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 15% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 51% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both UCD and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (1 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.54x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (19.7%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
15%
6.72
34%
2.91
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.52
UCD xG
Total xG
1.70
1.18
St Patrick's Athl. xG
6.72
15%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
59%
1.69
Win to Nil
5%
21.79
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 21.5 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.52 expected goals for UCD and 1.18 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
UCD's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours UCD by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St Patrick's Athl. heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
UCD are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. UCD's scoring rate against St Patrick's Athl.'s tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: UCD have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; St Patrick's Athl. in 0%.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Early Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have UCD or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2023, when St Patrick's Athl. won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
UCD's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
0
Draws
8
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did UCD and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when UCD 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of UCD's recent matches and 0% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of UCD's recent games and 0% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do UCD and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out UCD 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat UCD 1-2 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.52 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.54 / defence 1.03 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 10/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 15% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 100%, St Patrick's Athl. 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, UCD arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with St Patrick's Athl. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. UCD managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.