Dundalk 2-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 7W 0D 3L at Oriel Park — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.11 xG and Shelbourne 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.233 / defence 0.757 | Shelbourne attack 0.937 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.203. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Dundalk games / 11 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 33% | Shelbourne 26%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Shelbourne 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 40% | Draw 33% | Shelbourne 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Dundalk 1.11 / Shelbourne 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.233 / def 0.757 | Shelbourne attack 0.937 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Shelbourne xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 40% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Dundalk home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.23x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.94x) against Dundalk's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 47/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
40%
2.49
33%
2.99
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.97
0.85
Shelbourne xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.85 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
3
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Shelbourne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shelbourne 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.11 xG and Shelbourne 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against Shelbourne attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 47/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 40% | Draw 33% | Shelbourne 26%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.