Derry City 7-1 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 64%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derry City vs UCD fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
UCD make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derry City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
UCD have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. UCD are 1.40 PPG clear of Derry City in recent Premier Division fixtures (3.00 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derry City lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Derry City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.08 xG and UCD 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.185 / defence 0.860 | UCD attack 0.838 / defence 1.586. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.203. UCD bring a strong defensive rating of 1.586 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Derry City games / 11 UCD games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 64% | Draw 22% | UCD 14%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | UCD 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 64% | Draw 22% | UCD 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Derry City 2.08 / UCD 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.185 / def 0.860 | UCD attack 0.838 / def 1.586 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Derry City (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.87
UCD xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs UCD kick off?
Derry City vs UCD kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 April 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs UCD?
Derry City 7 - 1 UCD.
Where is Derry City vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs UCD part of?
Derry City vs UCD is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 64% chance of winning, UCD a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Derry City and UCD will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and UCD?
Record (1 meetings): Derry City 1W | Draws 0 | UCD 0W.
What form are Derry City and UCD in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.19) and UCD's defence rating (1.59), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.84x) against Derry City's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 47/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.57
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.94
0.87
UCD xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
13%
7.98
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
58.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Derry City and 0.87 for UCD, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Derry City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, UCD sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Derry City against 3.00 for UCD. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Derry City's scoring rate against UCD's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; UCD in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Early Season
UCD
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and UCD in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 7-1 on 22 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Derry City
0
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and UCD?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 8, UCD have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and UCD last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2023, when Derry City 6-0 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and UCD?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play UCD?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Derry City's games and 100% of UCD's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs UCD usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Derry City's matches and 100% of UCD's.
Do Derry City and UCD tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, UCD in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 7-1 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat UCD 7-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.08 xG and UCD 0.87 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 4.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.19 / defence 0.86 against UCD attack 0.84 / defence 1.59, drawn from 47/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 64% | Draw 22% | UCD 14%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 100%, UCD 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 3.00 PPG, UCD 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City scored 7 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. UCD managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.