Finn Harps 0-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 11 as Finn Harps welcome Sligo Rovers to Finn Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Finn Harps — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Finn Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Sligo Rovers have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Finn Harps) versus 1.20 (Sligo Rovers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Finn Harps, 3 for Sligo Rovers and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Sligo Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 61% versus Sligo Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | Sligo Rovers 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.03 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.965 / defence 1.258 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.193 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.237. Data: 46 Finn Harps games / 46 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 19% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 55%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Sligo Rovers 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Sligo Rovers (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sligo Rovers at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Finn Harps 70% | Sligo Rovers 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 19% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Finn Harps 1.03 / Sligo Rovers 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.965 / def 1.258 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.193 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Sligo Rovers xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Finn Harps 0 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 19% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers?
Record (5 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 1 | Sligo Rovers 3W.
What form are Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Finn Harps's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
19%
5.16
25%
3.93
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.89
1.86
Sligo Rovers xG
5.16
19%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
3%
33.06
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.86 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Finn Harps's recent record stands at 11W 11D 14L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 11L across 36 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 1.22 PPG, Sligo Rovers on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Finn Harps have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Finn Harps are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.19 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Sligo Rovers's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.17 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jun 2022, when Sligo Rovers won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
1
Draws
5
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Sligo Rovers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2022, when Finn Harps 3-2 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 61%, Sligo Rovers 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 33% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 33%; Finn Harps have failed to score in 28% of games; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 39% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 33% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Finn Harps 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Finn Harps 0-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.03 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.86 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Finn Harps fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sligo Rovers landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.96 / defence 1.26 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 19% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 55%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, Sligo Rovers 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 1.22 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.