Finn Harps 1-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 13 as Finn Harps welcome Shelbourne to Finn Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps at Finn Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Finn Harps have won 1, Shelbourne 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 3–0 with Finn Harps winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.87 xG and Shelbourne 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.843 / defence 1.152 | Shelbourne attack 0.931 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.246. Data: 48 Finn Harps games / 12 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 23% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 46%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Shelbourne 2.17. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 23% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Finn Harps 0.87 / Shelbourne 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.843 / def 1.152 | Shelbourne attack 0.931 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shelbourne xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Shelbourne kick off?
Finn Harps vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Finn Harps 1 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is Finn Harps vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Shelbourne part of?
Finn Harps vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 23% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Finn Harps and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shelbourne?
Record (1 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 0 | Shelbourne 0W.
What form are Finn Harps and Shelbourne in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Finn Harps home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Finn Harps's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
23%
4.40
32%
3.17
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.21
1.34
Shelbourne xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.7 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.34 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Finn Harps and Shelbourne runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Finn Harps won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
1
Draws
1
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shelbourne?
From 4 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Shelbourne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2022, when Finn Harps 1-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Shelbourne?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Finn Harps defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Shelbourne 1-0 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.87 xG and Shelbourne 1.34 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Shelbourne attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 23% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 46%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Finn Harps win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.