St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 6W 2D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Drogheda United's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Drogheda United trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Drogheda United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 56% | Drogheda United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 xG and Drogheda United 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.268 / defence 0.822 | Drogheda United attack 1.099 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.038. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 St Patrick's Athl. games / 66 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 68% | Draw 19% | Drogheda United 13%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Drogheda United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Drogheda United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 25 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 68% | Draw 19% | Drogheda United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 55% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 / Drogheda United 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.268 / def 0.822 | Drogheda United attack 1.099 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Drogheda United xG
55%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 September 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 2 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 68% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.27) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.37
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
3.27
0.94
Drogheda United xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
10%
10.27
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
77.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.94 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 66 games, going 34W 12D 20L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.12 PPG from 66 outings (18W 20D 28L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 19W 6D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 0.84 points per game from 32 outings (6W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 34W 12D 20L in their last 66 games (1.73 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 18W 20D 28L in their last 66 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Drogheda United away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.97 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.84 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 38%, Drogheda United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 50% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Drogheda United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 56% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 50% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 xG and Drogheda United 0.94 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Drogheda United outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.27 / defence 0.82 against Drogheda United attack 1.10 / defence 1.24, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 68% | Draw 19% | Drogheda United 13%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Drogheda United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 56%, Drogheda United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Drogheda United's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Drogheda United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Drogheda United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.