Bohemians 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 25 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bohemians (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shelbourne have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Shelbourne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | Shelbourne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.14 xG and Shelbourne 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.252 / defence 1.102 | Shelbourne attack 1.101 / defence 0.614. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.038. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shelbourne's defence strength of 0.614 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Bohemians games / 66 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 33% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 39%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Shelbourne 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | Shelbourne 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 25 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 33% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Bohemians 1.14 / Shelbourne 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.252 / def 1.102 | Shelbourne attack 1.101 / def 0.614 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Shelbourne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shelbourne kick off?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 September 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Bohemians vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shelbourne part of?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 33% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Shelbourne (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.25) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.10x) against Bohemians's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.49
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.40
1.26
Shelbourne xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.26 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians come into this having played 66 games, going 25W 19D 22L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.36 PPG from 66 outings (22W 24D 20L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Bohemians against 1.36 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians's home form reads 15W 8D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.28 points per game from 32 outings (10W 11D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.14 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 25W 19D 22L in their last 66 games (1.42 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 22W 24D 20L in their last 66 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shelbourne away?
Bohemians's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.66 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
5
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Shelbourne have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 59%, Shelbourne 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bohemians) and 34% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 41%; Shelbourne in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bohemians's recent matches and 41% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Bohemians's recent games and 34% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 30, as Bohemians and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.14 xG and Shelbourne 1.26 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.25 / defence 1.10 against Shelbourne attack 1.10 / defence 0.61, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 33% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 39%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.42 PPG, Shelbourne 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.