Dundalk 5-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dundalk at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Cork City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dundalk host Cork City at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dundalk have posted 5W 4D 1L at Oriel Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Cork City — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Cork City have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dundalk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dundalk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Cork City in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Dundalk, 1 for Cork City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jun 2023, ended 2–1 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Cork City in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 60% versus Cork City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 57% | Cork City 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 2.21 xG and Cork City 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.096 / defence 1.136 | Cork City attack 0.836 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.038. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Dundalk games / 30 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 65% | Draw 20% | Cork City 15%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Cork City 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Cork City 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 25 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 65% | Draw 20% | Cork City 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Dundalk 2.21 / Cork City 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.096 / def 1.136 | Cork City attack 0.836 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cork City xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Cork City kick off?
Dundalk vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 September 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Cork City?
Dundalk 5 - 0 Cork City.
Where is Dundalk vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Cork City part of?
Dundalk vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 65% chance of winning, Cork City a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dundalk and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Cork City?
Record (3 meetings): Dundalk 2W | Draws 0 | Cork City 1W.
What form are Dundalk and Cork City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Cork City (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
65%
1.55
20%
5.01
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.19
0.99
Cork City xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
11%
9.09
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
2%
59.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.99 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dundalk come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 7D 11L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Cork City sit at 0.90 PPG from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Dundalk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Cork City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dundalk's home form reads 7W 5D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Cork City have taken 0.40 points per game from 15 outings (1W 3D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dundalk are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.10 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Cork City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Cork City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Cork City have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Cork City away?
Dundalk's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.73 PPG; Cork City away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dundalk and Cork City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dundalk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2023, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dundalk
0
Draws
1
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Cork City?
From 4 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Cork City have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2023, when Dundalk 5-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Cork City?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 73%, Cork City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dundalk and 67% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cork City in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Cork City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Dundalk's games and 53% of Cork City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dundalk's matches and 67% of Cork City's.
Do Dundalk and Cork City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Cork City in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Cork City 5-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 2.21 xG and Cork City 0.99 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cork City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.10 / defence 1.14 against Cork City attack 0.84 / defence 1.36, drawn from 66/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 65% | Draw 20% | Cork City 15%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 57%, Cork City 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cork City's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.