Derry City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Derry City, 2.10 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Derry City have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Shamrock Rovers in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 45% versus Shamrock Rovers 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 42% | Shamrock Rovers 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.004 / defence 0.724 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.091 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.109. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Derry City games / 65 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 30%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Shamrock Rovers 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 20% | Shamrock Rovers 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Derry City 1.05 / Shamrock Rovers 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.004 / def 0.724 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.091 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Shamrock Rovers xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 September 2023 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 39% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.09x) against Derry City's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.18
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Derry City xG
Total xG
1.92
0.88
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Derry City and 0.88 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 33W 20D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 40W 16D 9L from 65 games, 2.09 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Derry City against 2.09 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.75 PPG from 32 outings (15W 11D 6L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 14W 11D 7L from 32 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.77 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Shamrock Rovers in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 33W 20D 12L in their last 65 games (1.83 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 40W 16D 9L in their last 65 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Derry City's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.75 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
3
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 38%, Shamrock Rovers 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Derry City) and 34% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 47%; Derry City have failed to score in 31% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Derry City's recent matches and 34% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Derry City's recent games and 34% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 1-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.05 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.88 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.00 / defence 0.72 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.09 / defence 0.70, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 39% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 30%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 42%, Shamrock Rovers 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.83 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.