Cork City 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cork City face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Turner's Cross in Premier Division, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cork City's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cork City at Turner's Cross this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cork City are significantly better at Turner's Cross than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. St Patrick's Athl. are 1.20 PPG clear of Cork City in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cork City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cork City lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cork City half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 52% versus St Patrick's Athl. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 58% | St Patrick's Athl. 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.29 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.880 / defence 1.123 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.193 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.037. Data: 31 Cork City games / 67 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 34% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Cork City 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 34% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Cork City 1.29 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.880 / def 1.123 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.193 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.39
St Patrick's Athl. xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Cork City 0 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 34% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (3 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Cork City (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cork City's attack at 0.88x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.19x) against Cork City's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 31/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.59
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.67
1.39
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cork City and 1.39 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Cork City have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 7W 6D 18L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 16W 5D 10L from 31 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cork City.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cork City have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.87 PPG overall — Cork City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cork City are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.77 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 7W 6D 18L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 16W 5D 10L in their last 31 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.40 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Cork City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cork City have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cork City
2
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 53%, St Patrick's Athl. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cork City) and 67% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cork City's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Cork City's matches and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Cork City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 0-1 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.29 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.39 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cork City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 34% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.