Cork City 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cork City vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cork City and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Turner's Cross in Premier Division (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Current Form

Cork City's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cork City at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cork City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

St Patrick's Athl. have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

St Patrick's Athl.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. St Patrick's Athl. are 1.20 PPG clear of Cork City over their recent games (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cork City's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) — Cork City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Cork City, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2023, ended Cork City 1–1 St Patrick's Athl. — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Cork City half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 52% versus St Patrick's Athl. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 58% | St Patrick's Athl. 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cork City surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while St Patrick's Athl. have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.29 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.880 / defence 1.123 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.193 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.037. Data: built from Cork City's last 31 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 67.

Result probabilities: Cork City 34% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 2.97 | Draw 3.59 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cork City's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cork City 60% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games).

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