Drogheda United 0-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Weavers Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 22 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Drogheda United, 1.40 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 52% versus Bohemians 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 43% | Bohemians 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.34 xG and Bohemians 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.976 / defence 1.024 | Bohemians attack 0.848 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.099. Data: 65 Drogheda United games / 65 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 45% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 26%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 3.85. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 60% | Bohemians 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 45% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Drogheda United 1.34 / Bohemians 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.976 / def 1.024 | Bohemians attack 0.848 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Bohemians xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 0 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.85x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.51
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.30
0.95
Bohemians xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.95 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 19D 28L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 25W 18D 22L from 65 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.43 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.39 PPG from 33 outings (12W 10D 11L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 10D 13L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.35 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 18W 19D 28L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 25W 18D 22L in their last 65 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.39 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 48%, Bohemians 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Drogheda United) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games; Bohemians in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 52% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Drogheda United's recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Drogheda United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United and Bohemians finished level at 0-0 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.34 xG and Bohemians 0.95 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 45% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 26%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 43%, Bohemians 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.12 PPG, Bohemians 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.