📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Shamrock Rovers take on Bohemians.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bohemians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Shamrock Rovers, 1.20 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Season Stats

The hosts have accumulated 19W 9D 8L from their 36 Premier Division appearances this term. They average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-3 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 1 scored / 0 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards per game, 0.06 reds per game.

Bohemians's full-season record stands at 16W 6D 14L from 36 games. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

Bohemians lead on clean sheets this season (13 vs 12). Penalty activity: Shamrock Rovers 1/1 vs Bohemians 5/5 this season.

Trading Data

Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Bohemians 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 0.94 xG and Bohemians 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.179 / defence 0.797 | Bohemians attack 0.903 / defence 0.576. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.169. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.576 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Shamrock Rovers games / 47 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 34% | Draw 37% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Bohemians 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights