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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 3W 5D 2L at Richmond Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bohemians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

On current form, St Patrick's Athl. have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Key Season Stats

On the season-wide numbers, St Patrick's Athl. show 13W 13D 10L from 36 outings in Premier Division. Their scoring output is 1.2 per match with 0.9 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-1 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 14 games this season. 18 clean sheets this season (10 at home, 8 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-3-3. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Bohemians's cumulative Premier Division record this campaign: 16W 6D 14L from 36 matches. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.1 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 1-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 11 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 7 of 36 games (19%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game.

St Patrick's Athl. lead on clean sheets this season (18 vs 13). Penalty activity: St Patrick's Athl. 4/4 vs Bohemians 5/5 this season.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Bohemians 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Bohemians 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG and Bohemians 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.245 / defence 0.747 | Bohemians attack 0.931 / defence 0.665. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.149. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.665 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 St Patrick's Athl. games / 48 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 23%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Bohemians 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.

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