Shelbourne 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derry City (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Shelbourne against 2.20 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Shelbourne 3W, Derry City 2W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Shelbourne winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 38% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.23 xG and Derry City 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.051 / defence 1.262 | Derry City attack 0.858 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.117. Data: 46 Shelbourne games / 47 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 31% | Derry City 34%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 60% | Derry City 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 31% | Derry City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Shelbourne 1.23 / Derry City 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.051 / def 1.262 | Derry City attack 0.858 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Derry City xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Derry City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Derry City kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Derry City part of?
Shelbourne vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 35% chance of winning, Derry City a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shelbourne and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
Record (8 meetings): Shelbourne 3W | Draws 3 | Derry City 2W.
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shelbourne's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.86x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
35%
2.87
31%
3.22
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
Derry City xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.21 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 32W 26D 14L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 32W 22D 18L from 72 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.64 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.75 PPG from 36 outings (17W 12D 7L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 14W 10D 12L from 36 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Derry City away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.75 PPG; Derry City away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Derry City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 36% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Derry City in 39%; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 42% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 36% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Derry City tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Derry City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shelbourne 1-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.23 xG and Derry City 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against Derry City attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 35% | Draw 31% | Derry City 34%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.69 PPG, Derry City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.