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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Shelbourne have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Derry City (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Shelbourne against 2.20 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Shelbourne 3W, Derry City 3W, 2D.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 2–1 with Shelbourne winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Stats

Across 36 matches this season, Shelbourne have gone 15W 14D 7L. Their scoring output is 1.3 per match with 1.0 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-1 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 5 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 5 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 36 games (14%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards per game, 0.08 reds per game.

Trading Data

Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 38% | Derry City 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.23 xG and Derry City 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.051 / defence 1.262 | Derry City attack 0.858 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.117. Data: 46 Shelbourne games / 47 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 31% | Derry City 34%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 60% | Derry City 40%.

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