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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at Celtic Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Derry City's home record at Celtic Park: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Celtic Park this season.

Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Derry City's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Derry City register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Shamrock Rovers in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Derry City 2W, Shamrock Rovers 4W, 2D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 8 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.28 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.069 / defence 1.146 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.018 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.199. Data: 48 Derry City games / 48 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Derry City 32% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 38%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Shamrock Rovers lead the H2H ledger, but Derry City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 70% | Shamrock Rovers 70% BTTS from recent games.

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