Longford Town 1-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waterford at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Longford Town vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waterford make the trip to Bishopsgate Stadium to face Longford Town in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 21 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Longford Town lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with Waterford winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 1.03 xG and Waterford 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.705 / defence 1.301 | Waterford attack 0.701 / defence 1.499. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.351. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.499 — this is suppressing Longford Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Longford Town games / 16 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 30% | Draw 31% | Waterford 40%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Waterford 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 30% | Draw 31% | Waterford 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Longford Town 1.03 / Waterford 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.705 / def 1.301 | Waterford attack 0.701 / def 1.499 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Waterford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Waterford xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Waterford kick off?
Longford Town vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 June 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Waterford?
Longford Town 1 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Longford Town vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Waterford part of?
Longford Town vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 30% chance of winning, Waterford a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Longford Town and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Waterford?
Record (1 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 0 | Waterford 1W.
What form are Longford Town and Waterford in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.70x) against Longford Town's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.27
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.26
1.23
Waterford xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.23 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Longford Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Waterford?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Waterford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2021, when Longford Town 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Waterford edge out Longford Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Longford Town 1-2 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 1.03 xG and Waterford 1.23 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.70 / defence 1.30 against Waterford attack 0.70 / defence 1.50, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 30% | Draw 31% | Waterford 40%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.