Derry City 1-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 21 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 0.84 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.874 / defence 1.225 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.835 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.351. Data: 16 Derry City games / 16 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 22% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 49%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Sligo Rovers 2.04. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 22% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Derry City 0.84 / Sligo Rovers 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.874 / def 1.225 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.835 / def 0.986 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sligo Rovers xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 June 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Derry City 1 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 22% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derry City and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Sligo Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (0.87) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.83x) against Derry City's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
22%
4.60
30%
3.38
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.22
1.38
Sligo Rovers xG
4.60
22%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derry City and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Derry City and 1.38 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Sligo Rovers?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Derry City and Sligo Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and Sligo Rovers finished level at 1-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.84 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.38 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.87 / defence 1.23 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 22% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 49%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.