Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Waterford Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 25 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.78 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.652 / defence 1.778 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.991 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.334. Waterford's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Waterford games / 17 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 10% | Draw 17% | St Patrick's Athl. 72%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 10.00 | Draw 5.88 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.39. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 10% | Draw 17% | St Patrick's Athl. 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 49% | xG Waterford 0.78 / St Patrick's Athl. 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.652 / def 1.778 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.991 / def 1.228 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
2.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
49%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 June 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 10% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 72% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 0.65x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.99x) against Waterford's defence (1.78x) — and the away total comes out at 2.35.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
10%
9.56
17%
5.81
72%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
0 – 3
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Waterford xG
Total xG
3.13
2.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
9.56
10%
Home win
5.81
17%
Draw
1.38
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
10%
10.49
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
1%
100.24
33%
3.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Waterford and 2.35 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
4
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 18, as Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.78 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 2.35 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.65 / defence 1.78 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 10% | Draw 17% | St Patrick's Athl. 72%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.