Bohemians 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 21 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.70 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.771 / defence 0.962 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.023 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.351. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.771 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Bohemians games / 16 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Shamrock Rovers 3.45. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 45% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Bohemians 1.70 / Shamrock Rovers 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.771 / def 0.962 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.023 / def 0.986 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Shamrock Rovers xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 June 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 45% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.77x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.02x) against Bohemians's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.92
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.03
1.33
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.33 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
1
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.70 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.33 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.77 / defence 0.96 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 45% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 29%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.