Drogheda United 0-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Head in the Game Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.56 xG and Dundalk 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.183 / defence 1.068 | Dundalk attack 0.933 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.351. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Drogheda United games / 16 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 42% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 32%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 42% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Drogheda United 1.56 / Dundalk 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.183 / def 1.068 | Dundalk attack 0.933 / def 1.357 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Dundalk xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 June 2021 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 0 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 42% chance of winning, Dundalk a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 1.18x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.93x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
42%
2.41
26%
3.79
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.91
1.35
Dundalk xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.35 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 0-1 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.56 xG and Dundalk 1.35 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Drogheda United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against Dundalk attack 0.93 / defence 1.36, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 42% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 32%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.