Finn Harps 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Derry City travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 June 2021, 20:00 UTC.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Finn Harps, 0 for Derry City and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2021, ended 2–1 with Finn Harps winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.72 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.731 / defence 1.123 | Derry City attack 0.781 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 0.968 / away 1.336. Finn Harps's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Finn Harps games / 15 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 33% | Derry City 46%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Derry City 2.17. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jun 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 33% | Derry City 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Finn Harps 0.72 / Derry City 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.731 / def 1.123 | Derry City attack 0.781 / def 1.011 | league avg home 0.968 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Derry City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Derry City xG
36%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Derry City kick off?
Finn Harps vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 18 June 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Finn Harps 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Finn Harps vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Derry City part of?
Finn Harps vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 21% chance of winning, Derry City a 46% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Finn Harps and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Derry City?
Record (1 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 0 | Derry City 0W.
What form are Finn Harps and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.73) and Derry City's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
21%
4.66
33%
3.04
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.89
1.17
Derry City xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 17.7 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.17 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Finn Harps and Derry City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derry City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
3
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Derry City?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Finn Harps 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Finn Harps 1-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.72 xG and Derry City 1.17 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Derry City attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 21% | Draw 33% | Derry City 46%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.