Dundalk 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 48%, yet in-form Derry City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division (matchday 11). Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derry City's record over their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Derry City have the stronger record — 4 wins to Dundalk's 0, with 3 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2026, ended Dundalk 2–2 Derry City — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Derry City have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Derry City 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dundalk surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Derry City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.21 xG and Derry City 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.130 / defence 0.780 | Derry City attack 0.742 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.061. Derry City bring a tight defence (rating 0.760, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dundalk's projected output down. Derry City's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Dundalk have a tight defence (rating 0.780), which is pulling Derry City's projected output down. Data: built from Dundalk's last 10 games and Derry City's last 46.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 48% | Draw 36% | Derry City 16%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.09 | Draw 2.76 | Derry City 6.28. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.61 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Dundalk's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dundalk 20% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 11 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 48% | Draw 36% | Derry City 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Dundalk 1.21 / Derry City 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.130 / def 0.780 | Derry City attack 0.742 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Derry City xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 11) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 48% chance of winning, Derry City a 16% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.13) and Derry City's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.74x) against Dundalk's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 10 games and Derry City's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
48%
2.09
36%
2.76
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.83
0.61
Derry City xG
2.09
48%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
5%
21.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.5 | 12.0 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.61 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Dundalk have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 11D 20L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 18W 9D 9L from 36 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 0.94 PPG from their last 18 home games (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 9W 3D 6L from their last 18 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.44 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Derry City
Current Season
Dundalk (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Derry City have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Derry City away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Derry City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Dundalk on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
4
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Derry City 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Dundalk) and 50% (Derry City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dundalk and 39% for Derry City.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; Derry City in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dundalk and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Dundalk's recent matches and 83% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Derry City finished level at 2-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.21 xG and Derry City 0.61 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Derry City attack 0.74 / defence 0.76, drawn from 10/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 48% | Draw 36% | Derry City 16%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Derry City 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.